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바카라 확률 및 베팅방법

바카라 베팅은 앞으로 시작하는 게임 라운드에서 승리하는 쪽이 플레이어 자신인지, 혹은 뱅커인지 예측하는 것입니다. 플레이어와 뱅커 외에 무승부에 베팅할 수도 있지만 확률이 낮아(10% 미만) 무승부에 베팅하는 경우는 많지 않습니다. 게임을 시작하기 전에 뱅커는 어느 쪽에 베팅할 것인지를 물어봅니다. 베팅할 수 있는 곳은 총 4곳입니다.

  1. 플레이어 (Player) : 플레이어 본인에게 베팅하는 것. 플레이어가 승리할 경우 베팅 금액의 2배를 지급받습니다.
  2. 뱅커 (Banker) : 카지노측 딜러에게 베팅하는 것. 뱅커가 승리할 경우 베팅 금액의 1.95배를 지급받습니다(수수료 5%).
  3. 타이 (Tie) : 플레이어와 뱅커의 숫자 합이 동일하다는 쪽에 베팅하는 것. 타이일 경우 베팅 금액의 8배를 지급받습니다.
  4. 페어 (Pair) : 2장의 카드가 같은 숫자라는 쪽에 베팅하는 것. 페어일 경우 베팅 금액의 11배를 지급받습니다.

베팅은 카지노에 따라 조금씩 다릅니다. 4개 중 하나에 베팅하는 곳이 있는 반면, 플레이어와 뱅커 둘 중 하나에 기본 베팅을 하고 타이와 페어에 추가 베팅을 할 수 있는 곳도 있습니다. 추가 베팅 여부는 당연히 강제가 아닌 선택입니다. 타이에 베팅을 하지 않았는데 플레이어와 뱅커가 타이를 기록했을 경우, 베팅한 금액은 다음 게임 라운드로 이전됩니다. 카지노에 따라 베팅 금액을 이전하지 않고 돌려주는 곳도 있으며, 타이 베팅 배당률을 9배를 설정한 곳도 있습니다.

바카라 확률 계산

바카라는 운이 게임 결과를 크게 좌우하기 때문에 블랙잭 같은 다른 게임처럼 확률을 계산하는 일이 그리 중요하지 않습니다. 어차피 플레이어가 바카라에서 선택할 수 있는 것은 어느 쪽에 베팅할 것인지, 오로지 하나 뿐이기 때문입니다. 오히려 그렇기 때문에 승률과 배당률을 염두에 두면 보다 유리한 선택을 할 수 있습니다.

바카라 확률은 통상 50:50이라 말합니다. 하지만 카지노는 플레이어보다 뱅커의 승리 확률을 약간 더 높게 설정합니다. 8덱 게임 기준, 플레이어의 정확한 승리 확률은 44.62%이며, 뱅커는 45.86%, 무승부는 9.52%입니다. 플레이어에 베팅했을 때는 뱅커에 베팅했을 때에 비해 1.24% 불리한 것입니다.

  • 뱅커 승리 확률 : 45.86%
  • 플레이어 승리 확률 : 44.62%
  • 무승부 확률 : 9.52%

따라서 무승부가 나오지 않는다는 가정 하에서의 승률은 다음과 같습니다.

  • 뱅커 승리 확률 : 50.68%
  • 플레이어 승리 확률 : 49.32%

예를 들어 1,000원을 베팅한다고 할 때, 플레이어 승리는 986.4원을, 그리고 뱅커 승리는 988.3원을 기대할 수 있습니다. 미세한 차이지만, 뱅커의 승리 확률이 더 높기 때문에 게임을 반복하면 반복할 수록 플레이어는 돈을 잃게 됩니다. 바카라는 한 번의 게임에 카드를 최소 4장부터 최대 6장까지 사용합니다. 카드 장수에 따른 바카라 승률 변화를 숙지하면 보다 유리한 고지를 선점할 수 있습니다.

기타 확률 계산

조커를 제외한 52장의 카드 1벌을 1덱(Deck)이라고 합니다. 바카라는 보통 8덱, 즉 416장의 카드로 게임을 진행합니다. 그런데 1덱으로 진행하는 경우도 있습니다. 1덱과 8덱은 당연히 확률이 달라집니다.